Overall sales of frozen foods in the United States are flat,reflecting in part a growing consumer preference for fresh foods. Nonetheless, the market is being strengthened by robust investment in product innovation, which includes developing bold and unique flavors, varieties inspired by world cuisines, product offerings that accommodate special dietary concerns, and products with cleaner labels and healthier nutrition profiles. Rollouts of such new products are being supported by strong marketing and advertising initiatives.
Among packaged food products consumed as hot meals, frozen foods are considered the most affordable and the most convenient by a substantial margin over their shelf-stable and refrigerated/fresh counterparts. However, between 2014 and 2016, frozen foods lost ground to these alternatives on all counts, including convenience, which has traditionally been thought of as the driving factor in purchase of frozen foods. But at the same time, quality and healthfulness have risen in importance, reflecting the recent reformulating and repositioning of leading brands and the growing presence of emerging brands that emphasize these qualities. In addition, convenience may play a less decisive role than might be expected, as consumers simply assume that this is a feature automatically associated with frozen meal items.
Rollouts of new products are being supported by strong marketing and advertising initiatives. Nevertheless, grocery store brands are increasing in their share of overall frozen food sales, accounting for 4% of total dollar sales through all outlets. In 2014, private label accounted for slightly less than 3% of overall sales. Growth is due in part to the overall trend toward higher-quality store brands and a higher opinion of them among consumers, along with the lower price points associated with store brands compared to branded equivalents.
Frozen Foods in the U.S., 6th Edition projects that sales of frozen foods over the 2016-2021 period will experience a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.2%, going from over $22 billion to around $21 billion for the four key frozen food categories: Frozen Dinners/Entrées; Frozen Pizzas; Frozen Side Dishes; and Frozen Appetizers/Snacks.
Scope and Methodology
Frozen Foods in the U.S., 6th Edition covers sales through U.S. supermarkets, drugstores, mass merchandisers (Walmart, Target, Kmart, and Shopko), Sam's Club and BJ's warehouse clubs, dollar stores excluding Dollar Tree, and military commissaries. Estimates of total market size for frozen foods and the categories covered incorporate sales through all channels and outlets.
Sales and market size data sources include:
IRI sales tracking through U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores, drugstores, and mass merchandisers (including Target, Kmart, and Wal-Mart) with annual sales of $2 million or more.
In addition, the report draws on data from the Winter 2016 Simmons NCS Adult Study 12-Month.
national Consumer Survey, conducted in July-August 2016 with a sample size of 2,000 U.S. adults age 18+.
The national Consumer Survey and Simmons National Consumer Survey are used in conjunction to present a multi-faceted analysis of consumer behavior. Market estimates within this report were based on both public and syndicated data sources. Available sales and trend data has been analyzed, together with information pertaining to those products that move through unmonitored outlets, to estimate the total size of the market for the products in the categories under consideration.
Information on new product introductions was derived from examination of the retail milieu and from relevant trade, business, and government sources, including company literature and annual reports. Company websites, Facebook, and Twitter pages served as sources for new advertising and marketing images and messaging.
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CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
The Market
Table 1-1 Overall Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2011-2016 (millions of dollars)
Table 1-2 Projected Overall Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2016-2021 (millions of dollars, percent)
Competitive Environment
Figure 1-1 Marketer Share of Sales for Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizer/Snacks, 2016 (percent share of dollar sales)
Table 1-3 Company Participation by Category, 2016
Product Trends
Retail and Foodservice
Table 1-4 Retail Channels Where Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items Are Purchased (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Consumer Trends
Table 1-4 Household Use of Frozen Dinners, Entrées, Pizzas, Snacks, and Vegetables, 2016 (percent of U.S. households)
CHAPTER 2 MARKET OVERVIEW
KEY POINTS
NOTE ON METHODOLOGY
MARKET CATEGORIES
OVERALL MARKET AT $22.3 BILLION
Table 2-1 Overall Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2011-2016 (millions of dollars)
Table 2-2 Sales by Category of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2011-2016 (millions of dollars)
Figure 2-1 Share by Category of Overall Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2016 (percent share of dollar sales)
Frozen Foods Market Remains at $20.8 Billion in IRI-Tracked Sales
Table 2-3 IRI-Tracked Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2015-2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
Table 2-4 IRI-Tracked Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2015-2016 (dollar sales change, unit sales change, volume change)
Frozen Dinner/Entrée Sales Show Negative Five-Year Growth
Table 2-5 Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, 2011-2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
Figure 2-2 IRI-Tracked Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées Segments, 2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
Frozen Pizza Showing Signs of Reviving?
Table 2-6 Sales of Frozen Pizzas, 2011-2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
Side Dishes Sales Flatten
Table 2-7 Sales of Frozen Side Dishes, 2011-2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
Figure 2-3 IRI-Tracked Sales of Frozen Side Dish Segments, 2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
Growth Falters in Frozen Appetizers/Snacks
Table 2-8 Sales of Frozen Appetizers/Snacks, 2011-2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
Figure 2-4 IRI-Tracked Sales of Frozen Appetizer/Snack Segments, 2016 (millions of dollars, percent)
MARKET OUTLOOK
Share of Consumers Who Buy Frozen Hot Meal Items Jumps to 90%
Figure 2-5 Purchase Rates for Frozen Hot Meal Items, 2014 vs 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
Declining Household Usage Rates Shown for Frozen Hot Meal Items…
Table 2-9 Household Use of Frozen Dinners, Entrées, Pizzas, Snacks, and Vegetables, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households)
…But Current Frozen Foods Consumers Are Buying More
Figure 2-6 Increased Purchasing of Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items, by Category, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Table 2-10 Increased Purchasing of Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items, by Category, 2014 vs. 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Nutritional Value of Frozen Foods a Growing Concern
Table 2-11
Level of Agreement with Statement: “Most Frozen Dinners Have Little Nutritional Value,” 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. population)
Frozen Considered More Affordable, Convenient Than Other Hot Meal Products
Table 2-12 Opinions About Frozen vs. Other Types of Packaged Hot Meal Items, 2014 vs. 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Quality the Most Important Factor to 80% of Frozen Foods Consumers
Figure 2-7 Importance of Various Factors in Frozen Hot Meal Item Purchasing Decisions, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Table 2-13 Importance of Various Factors in Frozen Hot Meal Item Purchasing Decisions, 2014 vs. 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Frozen Foods Consumers Perceive Refrigerated/Fresh as Higher Quality
Figure 2-8 Opinions About Frozen vs. Other Types of Packaged Hot Meal Items, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults
Preference for Fresh Presents a Formidable Challenge
Table 2-14 Reasons for Not Purchasing Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items, 2012 vs. 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who do not buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Table 2-15 “Are any of the following especially important to you in choosing the foods you eat?”, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
Schwan: Consumers Have “Complicated Relationship” With Frozen
Table 2-16 Consumer Opinions About Frozen Food Products, by Purchase Frequency: 2016 (percent of U.S. frozen foods consumers)
Figure 2-9 Reasons for Buying Fewer Frozen Foods Products, 2016 (percent of U.S. frozen foods consumers)
FDA Issues Draft Guidance to Food Industry for Voluntary Sodium Reduction Targets
Table 2-17 Voluntary Sodium Reduction Goals for Selected Commercially Processed, Packaged, and Prepared Foods
Illustration 2-1 Menu Modeling: Feasibility, Nutritional Value and Affordability of Frozen Foods
PROJECTED MARKET GROWTH
Product Innovation Will Slow Frozen’s Loss to Fresh
Table 2-18 Projected Overall Sales of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2016-2021 (millions of dollars, percent)
Table 2-19 Projected Overall Sales by Category of Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizers/Snacks, 2016 vs. 2021 (millions of dollars, percent change)
CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETERS
KEY POINTS
LEADING MARKETERS
Figure 3-1 Marketer Share of Sales for Frozen Dinners/Entrées, Pizzas, Side Dishes & Appetizer/Snacks, 2016 (percent share of dollar sales)
Table 3-1 Company Participation by Category, 2016
LEADING BRANDS AND USAGE TRENDS
Banquet Remains Tops in Household Frozen Dinner Usage
Table 3-2 Frozen Dinner Brands/Products Eaten Most Often in Last 30 Days, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households that eat frozen dinners)
Banquet Family Entrees the Most Frequently Consumed Frozen Entrées
Table 3-3 Frozen Main Course Brands/Products Eaten Most Often in Last 30 Days, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households that eat frozen main courses)
DiGiorno Controls the Highly Consolidated Frozen Pizza Segment
Table 3-4 Frozen Pizza Brands/Products Eaten Most Often in Last 30 Days, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households that eat frozen pizza)
Ore-Ida the Sole Frozen Potatoes Brand Eaten on a Frequent Basis
Table 3-5 Frozen Potatoes Brands/Products Eaten Most Often, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households that eat frozen potato products)
Hot Pockets Frequent Usage a Constant in Dynamic, Fragmented Hot Snacks Segment
Table 3-6 Frozen Hot Snacks Brands/Products Used Most Often in the Last 30 Days, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households that use frozen hot snacks)
Private Label Frozen Vegetables Consumed More Often Than National Brands
Table 3-7 Frozen Vegetables Brands/Products Eaten Most Often in the Last 30 Days, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households that eat frozen vegetables)
OVERVIEWS OF LEADING MARKETERS AND BRANDS
Nestlé
Table 3-8 Nestlé Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Conagra
Table 3-9 Conagra Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Illustration 3-1 “‘Now Serving a Better Banquet” Brand Restage
Schwan’s
Table 3-10 Schwan Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Pinnacle Foods
Table 3-11 Pinnacle Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Kraft Heinz
Table 3-12 Kraft Heinz Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Amy's Kitchen
Table 3-13 Amy’s Kitchen Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
General Mills
Table 3-14 General Mills Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Bellisio Foods
Table 3-15 Bellisio Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Tyson/Hillshire
Table 3-16 Tyson/Hillshire Retail Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
Bueno Foods (El Encanto, Inc.)
Table 3-17 Bueno Foods (El Encanto, Inc.) Frozen Food Brands by Category, 2016
OTHER KEY MARKETERS
B&G Foods
Ajinomoto Windsor Foods
Gold Star Chili
J&J Snack Foods
On-Cor Frozen Foods
Ruiz Foods
Skyline
Tabatchnick Frozen Soups
Willow Tree Farm
MEDIA, ADVERTISING, AND PROMOTIONS
B&G Re-Introduces Green Giant With “The Giant Awakens” Theme
Illustration 3-2 B&G Foods “The Giant Awakens” Ad
Conagra Romances Women Consumers
Illustration 3-3 Advertisement for Healthy Choice Simply Cafe Steamers
Nestlé Touches All the Bases With Fit Kitchen
Illustration 3-4 Scenes From Advertisement for Stouffer’s Fit Kitchen Frozen Meals
Bueno Foods Celebrates Anniversary With Free Cookbook
Illustration 3-5 Bueno Foods 65th Anniversary Cookbook
Schwan’s Reminds Consumers “Life Is Delicious”
Illustration 3-6 Bon Appetit’s “Life Is Delicious” Ads
Bellasio Takes to Twitter for Eat!2.0
Illustration 3-7 Eat!2.0 on Twitter
CHAPTER 4 PRODUCT TRENDS
KEY POINTS
PRODUCT TRENDS
CLEAN LABEL
Stouffer’s “Kitchen Cupboard” Effort Promises Fewer, Simpler, Familiar Ingredients
Illustration 4-1 Stouffer’s Lasagna with Meat & Sauce
Healthy Choice Simply Caf Steamers Feature Clean Label, On-Trend Recipes
Illustra on 4-2 Healthy Choice Simply Caf Steamers with organic ingredients
Evol Invites You to “Love What You Eat”
Illustration 4-3 Evol Fajita Cups and Veggie Cups
CUISINES OF THE WORLD
Bellisio’s EAT! Frozen Entr es Offer Global, Adventurous Flavors
Illustration 4-4 Bellisio EAT! Frozen Entrées
Lean Cuisine’s Limited-Time Entrées Inspired by International Culinary Trends
Illustration 4-5 Lean Cuisine Limited Edition Southwest-Style Potato Bake
Mouth Meets South: First-Ever Packaged Frozen Soul Food Meals
Illustration 4-6 Mouth Meets South Frozen Meals
SPECIAL DIETARY PREFERENCES
Illustration 4-7 Daiya Supreme Pizza with Meatless Sausage
Illustration 4-8 MorningStar Farms Japanese Soba Noodles Veggie Bowls
MAKING VEGGIES RELEVANT AGAIN
Illustration 4-9 Boulder Canyon Riced Sweet Potato
Illustration 4-10 Tommy’s Superfoods Seasoned Root Fusion
Table 4-1 Selected New Frozen Food Products: Dinners and Entrées
Table 4-2 Selected New Frozen Food Products: Pizza
Table 4-3 Selected New Frozen Food Products: Side Dishes
Table 4-4 Selected New Frozen Food Products: Appetizers and Snacks
CHAPTER 5 RETAIL AND FOODSERVICE TRENDS
KEY POINTS
Supermarkets by Far the Dominant Channel for Frozen Food Spending
Table 5-1 Retail Channels Where Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items Are Purchased (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Table 5-2 Retail Channels Where Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items Are Purchased, by Share of Frozen Food Spending, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Table 5-3 Share of Frozen Food Spending Within Retail Channels, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Private Label Plays a Significant Role in Some Frozen Food Segments
Table 5-4 Store Brand Usage of Selected Frozen Food Products in Last 30 Days, 2012-2016 (percent of U.S. households that consume the product)
Schwan’s: Retailers Can Make the Frozen Aisle a Linger-Worthy Destination
NATIONAL FROZEN & REFRIGERATED FOODS ASSOCIATION EMPHASIZES QUALITY AND FRESHNESS TO PROMOTE FROZEN .. 113
CHAPTER 6 CONSUMER TRENDS
KEY POINTS
FROZEN FOODS CONSUMPTION TRENDS
Over Half of U.S. Households Use Frozen Vegetables, Pizza, Potatoes
Table 6-1 Household Use of Frozen Dinners, Entrées, Pizzas, Snacks, and Vegetables, 2016 (percent of U.S. households)
Age, Race, Presence of Children Strong Predictors of Use
Table 6-2 Usage Indexes for Frozen Dinners, Entrées, Pizzas, Snacks, or Vegetables: By Demographic Segment, 2016 (U.S. households)
Table 6-3 Usage Indexes for Frozen Dinners, Entrées, Pizzas, Snacks, or Vegetables: By Children in Household, 2016 (U.S. households)
African Americans, Households With Teens Are Heaviest Users of Frozen Dinners
Figure 6-1 Packages of Frozen Dinners Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2016 (percent of households that use frozen dinners)
Table 6-4 Demographics of Households Consuming 5+ Packages Frozen Dinners in Last 30 Days, 2016 (index of households that use frozen dinners)
Nine in 10 Consumers Buy Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items
Figure 6-2 Purchase Rate for Frozen Hot Meal Items, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
Table 6-5 Increased Purchasing of Packaged Frozen Hot Meal Items, by Category, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure 6-3 Increased Purchasing of Packaged Frozen Dinners/Entrées, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure 6-4 Increased Purchasing of Packaged Frozen Pizzas, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure 6-5 Increased Purchasing of Packaged Frozen Appetizers/Snacks, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure 6-6 Increased Purchasing of Packaged Frozen Vegetables/Side Dishes, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Half of Frozen Foods Consumers Keep Hot Meal Items on Hand
Table 6-6 “Do you keep any of the following packaged frozen products in your freezer, even if not necessarily for using soon?”, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Frozen Foods Consumer Attitudes and Opinions
Quality Remains Most Important Factor in Purchase Decisions
Table 6-7 Importance of Various Factors in Frozen Hot Meal Item Purchasing Decisions, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Frozen Considered Most Convenient, Affordable Type of Hot Meal Item
Table 6-8 Opinions About Frozen vs. Other Types of Packaged Hot Meal Items, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure-6-7 “Which type of packaged items for hot meals are typically the most affordable?,” 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure-6-8 “Which type of packaged items for hot meals are typically the highest quality?,” 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure-6-9 ‘Which type of packaged items for hot meals typically have the fewest additives or preservatives?”, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Figure-6-10 ‘Which type of packaged items for hot meals are typically the most convenient to prepare?”,2016 (percent of U.S. adults who buy packaged frozen hot meal items to be heated/microwaved)
Frozen Foods Consumers Are Busy and Strapped for Time
Table 6-9 Health, Food, and Shopping Attitudes, by Type of Frozen Food Used, 2016 (index of frozen foods households)
Concern About Nutritional Value of Frozen Skews Upscale
Table 6-10 Agreement with Statement: “Most Frozen Dinners Have Little Nutritional Value,” byDemographic Segment, 2016 (index of U.S. adults)
