Summary
The outlook is positive for the Indian wealth market, with performance over the coming five years set to improve on the previous five. India’s economy is performing strongly, with reforms such as the goods and services tax starting to take effect and encourage growth. While there are challenges - including the weak rupee and high oil prices - the positive momentum is expected to continue into 2019. All asset classes continue to attract inflows, with mutual funds experiencing particularly strong growth in the wake of a high-profile awareness-building campaign. While there is the noted non-resident Indian market, beyond this the retail non-resident market is limited, with foreign investors only able to access Indian equity markets and mutual funds as of 2012.
This report analyzes India’s wealth and retail savings and investments markets, with a focus on the HNW segment. The report is based on our proprietary datasets.
Specifically the report -
- Sizes the affluent market (both by number of individuals and the value of their assets) using GlobalData’s proprietary datasets.
- Examines HNW clients’ attitudes towards non-liquid asset classes such as property, commodities, and offshore investments.
- Analyzes which asset classes are favored by Indian investors and how their preferences impact the growth of the total savings and investments market.
- Evaluates the size of the retail non-resident offshore market in India and foreign investors’ preferences.
Scope
- The affluent population is rebounding, with growth over the next five years set to exceed that of the last five. A compound annual growth rate of 12.6% is forecast between 2018 and 2022, bringing the number of affluent individuals to just under 12 million.
- The retail savings and investments market has a significant direct equity component, which accounted for 30.2% of total retail holdings in 2017. However, efforts to highlight mutual fund investing combined with the possible introduction of caps on direct equity investing by retail investors could see equities lose out to mutual funds in the long term.
- The non-resident investment market is small. Non-resident deposits only account for 6.9% of the total retail market (4.0% for mutual funds). There are a number of restrictions on non-resident holdings, and for overseas investors looking to gain exposure to India there are credible alternatives.
Reasons to buy
- Benchmark your share of India’s wealth market against the current market size.
- Forecast your future growth prospects using our projections for the market to 2022.
- Identify your most promising client segment by analyzing the penetration of affluent individuals in India.
- Evaluate your HNW proposition by understanding how the ever-changing tax system affects your HNW clients.
- Review your offshore strategy and offering for non-resident investors by learning the dynamics in these markets.
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Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
1.1. The Indian wealth market will continue to expand strongly 2
1.2. Key findings 2
1.3. Critical success factors 2
2. INDIA’S WEALTH MARKET IS SET FOR STRONG GROWTH 8
2.1. Economic reforms are starting to pay off and drive growth 8
2.1.1. The Indian economy is on the up, albeit not without challenges 8
2.1.2. Growth in affluent individuals will be stronger over the next five years than the previous five 9
2.1.3. Affluent assets are forecast to record a CAGR of 13.0% to 2022 10
2.1.4. HNW individuals also hold notable assets in less liquid options, particularly property 11
2.2. Offshore investments account for just over 16% of total HNW assets 12
2.2.1. Property and equities account for the majority of offshore investments 12
2.2.2. Tax efficiency is a key driver of offshore investment, but authorities are tightening the net 13
2.2.3. India plays an active role in global tax transparency efforts, having signed tax information exchange agreements and double taxation conventions with many offshore centers 14
3. INDIA’S RETAIL SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS MARKET WILL CONTINUE ITS STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY 16
3.1. Retail savings and investments will record a CAGR of 13.0% to 2022 16
3.1.1. The strong investment component of the market will aid growth 16
3.1.2. Mutual funds and equities are set to experience the strongest future growth 17
3.2. Retail deposit growth dropped sharply in 2017, but will pick up going forward 18
3.2.1. Inflows have plunged following the demonetization-driven surge in 2016 18
3.2.2. Financial inclusion levels are improving significantly, but the country still has a large unbanked population 19
3.3. Equities growth will be strong, but slower than the previous five years 20
3.3.1. A stellar 2017 buoyed equity holdings, but 2018 is proving much more turbulent 20
3.3.2. The possibility of caps being introduced on retail investor equity exposure could have a notable impact on direct holdings 22
3.4. Mutual funds are experiencing strong growth 22
3.4.1. Significant investor education and reductions in charges will help boost inflows 22
3.4.2. The mixed allocation of funds buffers their performance from the extremes of the stock market 23
3.5. Retail bond holdings will increase, but they will remain a peripheral investment 24
3.5.1. 2017 and 2018 have seen renewed interest in direct bond holdings 24
4. INDIA’S NON-RESIDENT INVESTMENT MARKET IS LIMITED 26
4.1. Non-resident holdings are dominated by NRIs 26
4.1.1. NRIs hold a notable proportion of onshore assets 26
4.1.2. Non-resident holdings accounted for 6.9% of deposits and 4.0% of funds in 2017 26
4.1.3. ADRs and GDRs offer alternative options for exposure to the Indian market 27
5. APPENDIX 28
5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms 28
5.2. Supplementary data 29
5.3. Definitions 34
5.3.1. ADR 34
5.3.2. Affluent 35
5.3.3. Domicile 35
5.3.4. Double taxation convention 35
5.3.5. Emerging affluent 35
5.3.6. Exchange of information 35
5.3.7. FATCA 36
5.3.8. GDR 36
5.3.9. HNW 36
5.3.10. Liquid assets 37
5.3.11. Mass affluent 37
5.3.12. Mass market 37
5.3.13. Onshore 37
5.3.14. Residency 38
5.3.15. Tax information exchange agreements 38
5.4. Methodology 38
5.4.1. 2018 Global Wealth Managers Survey 38
5.4.2. Retail Investments Analytics 39
5.4.3. Technical aspects of the forecasting model 40
5.4.4. Global Wealth Model 41
5.4.5. Total HNW Wealth Analytics 42
5.4.6. Exchange rates 43
5.5. Bibliography 43
5.6. Further reading 44
List of Tables
Table 1: Number of adults in India segmented by asset band (000s), 2006-11 29
Table 2: Number of adults in India segmented by asset band (000s), 2012-17 30
Table 3: Number of adults in India segmented by asset band (000s), 2018f-22f 31
Table 4: Retail liquid assets in India segmented by asset band ($m), 2006-11 32
Table 5: Retail liquid assets in Denmark segmented by asset band ($m), 2012-17 33
Table 6: Retail liquid assets in Denmark segmented by asset band ($m), 2018f-22f 34
Table 7: US dollar exchange rates with the Indian rupee 43
List of Figures
Figure 1: India’s affluent population represents just 0.8% of the total population 10
Figure 2: Growth in liquid assets will be strongest among the HNW segment 11
Figure 3: Indian HNW individuals hold over a third of their wealth in illiquid assets 12
Figure 4: Offshore holdings by Indian HNW individuals account for 16.2% of their total portfolio 13
Figure 5: India was part of the early adopter group for the OECD’s CRS 15
Figure 6: Deposits and equities are the key components of India’s retail savings and investments market 17
Figure 7: Mutual funds are set to record the strongest growth through to 2022 18
Figure 8: Deposit growth has dropped following the demonetization-driven surge 19
Figure 9: A stellar 2017 on the Indian stock market saw strong performance growth in retail equity holdings 20
Figure 10: A third of companies included in the BSE 500 index operate in the finance sector 21
Figure 11: Mutual funds have been boosted by an uptick in inflows from 2015 onward 23
Figure 12: Fixed-income and equity funds dominate the Indian mutual fund market 24
Figure 13: Direct bond investments attracted inflows for the first time in five years in 2018 25
Figure 14: Non-resident holdings in deposits and mutual funds are limited, but growing 27
Figure 15: Example of a four-input forecasting process 40
